Predictions

Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Series is currently 2-1 Boston. Resolves on the day of the deciding game.

Will the Senate confirm the new Fed chair nominee before May 30?

Confirmation hearings began last week. Two senators from the majority party have signaled hesitation. Resolves on the date of the floor vote.

Will any AI company release a model that scores above 90% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?

ARC-AGI-2 is the harder successor to the original benchmark. Current SOTA is around 31%. Resolves YES if a publicly disclosed score crosses 90% before Jan 1.

Will the S&P 500 close above 7,000 on any trading day in Q2 2026?

Currently sitting at 6,852. Resolves on the official closing price published by S&P Global.

Will Manchester City finish top 4 in the Premier League?

Will a fusion reactor achieve net-positive energy gain in continuous operation for 60+ minutes by the end of 2026?

Net-positive in pulses has been done. Sustained net-positive for 60 minutes has not. Resolves on confirmed peer-reviewed disclosure.

Will the iPhone 18 ship with USB-C 4.0?

Will the Eurovision 2026 winner be from a Nordic country?

Will JWST discover an exoplanet with confirmed water vapor in 2026?

Will my mom finally admit she likes my partner before Thanksgiving?

She has met him four times. She still calls him "your friend." Resolves YES if she uses the word "boyfriend" or higher unprompted.

Will any candidate clinch the GOP nomination before March 1, 2028?

Resolves YES if a single candidate crosses 1,235 delegates before the date.

Will the new BRT line in Indianapolis open by August 2026?

Construction is on schedule. Funding cleared last quarter.

Will I bake my mom a birthday loaf this year?

I haven't yet. She thinks I forgot. I did not forget.